The FED is supposed to do an interest rate cut on the 17th of September. Is there anything that is out there now that may deter this. If it goes through, will mortgage rates go down, if so, how much?

What Could Derail the Rate Cut?

Several factors could still discourage the Fed from issuing a rate cut:

1. Persistently High Inflation

• Inflation remains elevated—around 2.9% year-over-year—still above the Fed’s 2% target, and tariffs could continue to stoke price pressures InvestopediaReutersMarketWatch.

• Some Fed officials (e.g., Musalem, Bostic) remain cautious, wanting more data before easing policy Barron's.

2. Relatively Resilient Job Market

• The labor market shows a slowdown—just 22,000 new jobs in August, plus a massive 911,000 downward revision in earlier job counts—but unemployment is still historically low at 4.3%, indicating ongoing strength Financial TimesMarketWatch.

• This balance of cooling job growth, but not collapse, may give the Fed reason to tread carefully.

3. Strong Economic Indicators

• Morgan Stanley sees reasons for caution, citing robust GDP growth, loose financial conditions, and stable consumer data, arguing these reduce immediate pressure to cut (placing cut odds closer to 50-50, not assured) Morgan Stanley.

• Some officials also emphasize the Fed’s independence and long-term strategy despite political pressure ReutersThe Washington PostU.S. Bank.

Likelihood of a September Rate Cut

• Markets currently see about a 90% chance of a 0.25 percentage point (25 bps) cut at the September 16–17 meeting Reuters+2Reuters+2Equals MoneyBlackRock.

• BofA expects two cuts of 25 bps—one in September and another in December—bringing the year-end funds rate lower Reuters.

• Governor Waller supports multiple rate reductions, while others remain more cautious Barron's.

• New York Fed President Williams highlighted that tariffs aren’t inflating prices broadly and appears open to a September cut MarketWatch.

If the Cut Happens—What About Mortgage Rates?

While the Fed’s cut influences short-term borrowing, mortgage rates—particularly long-term fixed rates—track longer-term yields like the 10-year Treasury, not as directly tied to the federal funds rate.

Current Mortgage Trends:

• 30-year fixed rates have already dropped to an 11-month low of about 6.49%, down 15 bps in a week and roughly 60 bps since mid-January. This has spurred a wave of refinance and purchase activity ReutersNational Mortgage Professional.

• Weak jobs data and pre-priced expectations have pushed these rates lower in anticipation of cuts CBS NewsInvestopediaReutersFlorida Realtors.

Will Rates Fall Further?

• The expected 25 bps Fed cut is modest—it may move mortgage rates, but not dramatically CBS News+1Investopedia.

• Many lenders may already have priced in the action, so changes post-cut may be limited CBS News+1.

• The 10-year Treasury yield plays a larger role; if it keeps drifting lower, mortgage rates may follow BankrateInvestopedia.

Forecasts:

• Investopedia notes that even with multiple cuts this year, mortgage rates may only edge into the mid-6% range by year-end—and possibly low-6s by end of 2026 Investopedia.

• Mortgage pros warn the CPI data on September 11 and the Fed decision itself could swing rate sheets again National Mortgage Professional.

Summary Table

Factor	Details
Risks to the cut	Sticky inflation, strong labor data, economic resilience
Cut Expectations	High chance (~90%) of 25 bps in September; possibly two cuts this year
Mortgage Impact	Already trending lower; cut may nudge rates a bit more—but not dramatically; long-term yields are key